Unravelling the Race to 270 – An Analysis of Battleground States

With around 24 hours to go until we start to hear how Americans have voted the election sits evenly balanced on a knife edge. As the night progresses and the election map fills with colour from east to west the key focus will be on the announcement of key battleground states. If, using what we already can assume i.e. California voting Democrat, Texas Republican etc, it’s safe to say that the election will boil down to the following eight states – Virginia, North Carolina, Iowa, Ohio, Florida, New Hampshire, Wisconsin & Colorado.

Virginia

Virginia, while maybe not as crucial as say Ohio, it is one that may indicate the winds of the election. The state is crucial for Romney, loose Virginia and he will be facing a long night.

Looking at the states demographics and you could consider them somewhat reflective of the nation as a whole. The states two main employers are government and the military. Here Romney splits Virginian voters on the one hand he alienates the ever increasing number of those who live in the suburbs and commute to Washington to work within the government with his policy ambition to reduce the size of government which will result in job losses in the area. However on the flip side Romney’s plan to increase military spending will no doubt create military jobs in Virginia. It must also be noted that while a real winner in the post-debate newsreels, Obama’s line that the military no longer use Bayonets and Horses in so much gave away that he sees the military increasing its use of technology at the expense of the working military person.

The key indicator of the state will be Fairfax and how strong the Obama vote is, if high Obama will claim Virginia and if so the election. However, that said due to its importance, military job policy and to an extent the state’s history of voting in presidential elections all indicate a (very very) slim Romney win.

Winner – Mitt Romney

Iowa

Iowa is another interesting state. As things stand the state has far lower unemployment than the national rate factor in how Obama has treated agriculture during his term and Iowa would seem a straight forward win for the incumbent president. However one point could be crucial, particularly from a political science point of view will be the effect of the media upon voting with recent reports noting that the 4 largest newspapers within the state have all endorsed Romney. That said unless the media effect is drastic by US standards Iowa should return an Obama win by a slim majority.

Winner – Barack Obama

Florida

As things stand Florida is nothing more than a coin toss between deciding who will carry the state. The controversial ‘Obamacare’ is considered somewhat popular in Florida among the high ‘Grey Vote’ within. Factor in the Latino vote and Obama might at this point be edging it. However all polls since the first debate has had the state at a dead heat. The key to Florida will be who gets its voter base out best (maybe an example as to why Romney is campaigning in Pennsylvania-See below)  factor in other aspects and for me Romney might snatch Florida by the slightest of margins. One thing that will be guaranteed is lawyers and queries of voting irregularities as seems to be the election norm within the state.

Winner – Mitt Romney

New Hampshire

‘Live free or die’ is the moto of the state and Romney’s small government line should go down well among voters. Universal health care and the tarring of Obama as a socialist will undoubtedly hinder the incumbent’s chance here. It is also key to note that the Republican Party enjoys a higher amount of registered supporters in the state than the Democrats and all told I see Romney snatching New Hampshire by a handful of votes.

Winner – Mitt Romney

Pennsylvania

Pennsylvania is at the moment the backdrop to political games on the final day of with Romney campaigning within the state that most believe is a safe(ish) democratic state. The reason for this is somewhat of a strategy masterstroke on Romney’s behalf as by campaigning in Pennsylvania he is sending out a message to multiple states that he believes he can win the state and as a result attempting to energise the voter base that will help him in states such as Florida. That said Obama is strong among the urban areas of Pittsburgh, Philadelphia, Harrisburg and Doylestown. Factor into this the farcical contests by the Republican Party into voter ID law and many would believe that the GOP has been playing catch up within the state from the start. Unless something seismic happens in the next 24 hours Pennsylvania will vote Obama.

Winner – Barack Obama

North Carolina

Obama famously won, albeit slimly, North Carolina for the Democrats for the first time since Jimmy Carter in 1976. In 2012 Obama as incumbent and with a lower popularity rating than 4 years ago faces an uphill battle in the state. Factor in the high evangelical vote, the recent state vote against gay marriage and the distaste for Obama’s liberal stance on the issue all but reassures that Romney will pick up these 15 electoral colleges.

Winner – Mitt Romney

Colorado

Colorado could be another uphill battle for Obama. While Obama did carry the state in 2008 it could be argued that Colorado is somewhat Republican territory. Large Evangelical populations in El Paso will certainly help Romney as to will the retired military voters in the state. Denver is where Obama garnered a very high proportion of the vote last time out. That said the lack of energy from college students among others may hamper Obama’s chances in the state. Current polls suggest that Romney has pulled level with Obama in the state and should he successfully master his sails in theses winds, the Republican may scrap a victory.

Winner – Mitt Romney

Ohio

The Crown Jewel of the election is Ohio and its 18 electoral colleges. Typically a right leaning state the lie of the land in Ohio suggests that this is the Democrats for taking. Unemployment is low in the buckeye sate thanks in part to the revival of the auto industry all of which will stand to the Democrats. Romney’s energy policy on the flip side will help him in the coal mining south of the state. As a result, Romney can expect a large vote in the south as well as rural votes throughout the state. However these areas are sparsely populated and with Obama expected to carry the larger populated areas of Cleveland, Toledo and to a lesser extent Columbus the state looks to turn democratic blue on election night.

One caveat however is to what extent Romney can energise his base in rural Ohio and get out the vote. Should he prove successful in doing so (again reverting back to his previously mentioned campaigning in Pennsylvania) he certainly will bring it to the last few counted votes to decide the Winner.  For Romney to win Ohio he needs to deliver on the ‘ifs’ and this I feel will be a stretch to far.

Winner – Barack Obama

Election result – Barack Obama 277 Mitt Romney 261

States Voting Obama	States Voting Romney
Ohio	Virginia
Pennsylvania	North Carolina
Iowa	New Hampshire
Washington	Idaho
Oregon	Montana
California	Wyoming
Nevada	Utah
New   Mexico	Colorado
Minnesota	Arizona
Wisconsin	North Dakota
Illinois	South Dakota
Michigan	Nebraska
District of Colombia	Kansas
Maryland	Oklahoma
Delaware	Texas
New Jersey	Tennessee
Rhode Island	Arkansas
Massachusetts	Louisiana
Vermont	Indiana
Connecticut	Missouri
New York	Kentucky
Maine	Mississippi
Hawaii	Alabama
	Georgia
	South Carolina
	Florida
	West Virginia
	Alaska

With all predictions of this nature one leaves himself open to criticism. Please feel free to agree or disagree with my standpoint in the comments area below. My articles in general have provided debate which is always welcome.

Twitter – @benmcgilloway